But Chinese economic data could be a ‘win-win’ for investors GettySome skeptical analysts are climbing all over China’s latest official economic data.Reactions from analysts to China’s latest GDP reading range from skepticism and shrugs to declarations of victory. Growth in the world’s No. 2 economy slowed to 6.9% in the third quarter, below Beijing’s 7% target for the first time since 2009, but above forecasts for 6.8%, data showed Monday. Analysts for years have expressed doubts about China’s official data, but there was particularly intense distrust on Monday. Here are some initial reactions from market analysts, starting with one economist who says his shop doesn’t buy the official figures: “We don’t believe them at all. It’s not just that they come in suspiciously close to the target, which is pre-set. They’re produced remarkably quickly and rarely revised. And our own estimate — which is based on Premier Li’s advice, which is that the GDP data are untrustworthy, that we should use alternative measures to gauge the level of activity in China like electricity use, credit growth and other domestic indicators — we combine those and we get a number closer to 3%. Not 7.3 – three!” —Danny Gabay, co-director at Fathom Consulting, in an interview with BBC Radio 4 (starting around the 17:00 mark) “Chinese headline GDP growth looks healthy at 6.9% but underlying metrics suggest the real growth rate could be nearer 3%-4%. If you look at growth in rail cargo traffic, electricity consumption and demand for loans, three metrics favoured by Prime Minister Li, the picture is not so healthy. Credit growth still looks promising but freight shipments and electricity demand growth look to be sagging, so the so-called Li Keqiang index does raise a few questions. Today’s GDP figures are encouraging but investors with exposure to China should still expect some bumps and lumps along the way.” —Russ Mould, investment director at broker AJ Bell, in a note that also provides the chart below AJ Bell “All eyes today were on China’s Q3 GDP data, but the overall response was a collective shrug. ... Overall, the economic data seem to suggest that the authorities continue just about to muddle through the major economic adjustments ongoing in China and that there is no sudden cause for panic. However, they would not lead us to change our expectation that further cuts to interest rates and banks’ reserve ratio requirements are likely to be in store. And, of course, these data are subject to well-known limitations and quality concerns, and so the appropriate response might well simply be to take them with a big pinch of salt.” —Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe, in a note “The Chinese data should really be seen as win-win from an investor standpoint. The GDP reading was better than the market was expecting which ensures that the 2015 7% target is still achievable, while industrial production and fixed asset investment figures were so weak that further monetary and fiscal stimulus this year looks increasingly likely.”—Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note Reactions on Twitter suggest the skeptical view has plenty of supporters. More from MarketWatch